The Effects of Recent Climate Change on Spring Phenology, With a Special Focus on Patterns of Bee Foraging

The date on which plants flower and on which bees begin to pollinate varies year-to-year depending on differences in weather. This seasonal timing is known as phenology, and it is already clear that climate change has pushed the spring phenology of many species earlier by increasing temperatures. This is particularly clear in flowering plants, but studying how and why the phenology of pollinators is shifting is more difficult. Most flowering plants rely on pollinators such as bees for their reproduction, and most bees rely on flowers for their sustenance, so bee and flower phenology has to overlap for the crucial interaction of pollination to happen, and understanding the phenology of both is important to predicting how climate change will affect pollination in the future. Using new and existing data on bee and flower phenology from the Colorado Rocky Mountains, I examined what drives phenology and developed a mathematical model to relate bee phenology to basic demographic rates. Taking a global view, I also tested whether the phenology of plants, insects, and birds is becoming less predictable due to rising temperatures. In general, this dissertation shows that while the drivers of phenology are complex and interrelated, we can predict their outcomes as climate change progresses

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Validation of a Mathematical Model for Green Algae (Raphidocelis Subcapitata) Growth and Implications for a Coupled Dynamical System with Daphnia Magna

Toxicity testing in populations probes for responses in demographic variables to anthropogenic or natural chemical changes in the environment. Importantly, these tests are primarily performed on species in isolation of adjacent tropic levels in their ecosystem. The development and validation of coupled species models may aid in predicting adverse outcomes at the ecosystems level. Here, we aim to validate a model for the population dynamics of the green algae Raphidocelis subcapitata, a planktonic species that is often used as a primary food source in toxicity experiments for the fresh water crustacean Daphnia magna. We collected longitudinal data from three replicate population experiments of R. subcapitata. We used this data with statistical model comparison tests and uncertainty quantification techniques to compare the performance of four models: the Logistic model, the Bernoulli model, the Gompertz model, and a discretization of the Logistic model. Overall, our results suggest that the logistic model is the most accurate continuous model for R. subcapitata population growth. We then implement the numerical discretization showing how the continuous logistic model for algae can be coupled to a previously validated discrete-time population model for D. magna

Validation of a Mathematical Model for Green Algae (Raphidocelis Subcapitata) Growth and Implications for a Coupled Dynamical System with Daphnia Magna

Toxicity testing in populations probes for responses in demographic variables to anthropogenic or natural chemical changes in the environment. Importantly, these tests are primarily performed on species in isolation of adjacent tropic levels in their ecosystem. The development and validation of coupled species models may aid in predicting adverse outcomes at the ecosystems level. Here, we aim to validate a model for the population dynamics of the green algae Raphidocelis subcapitata, a planktonic species that is often used as a primary food source in toxicity experiments for the fresh water crustacean Daphnia magna. We collected longitudinal data from three replicate population experiments of R. subcapitata. We used this data with statistical model comparison tests and uncertainty quantification techniques to compare the performance of four models: the Logistic model, the Bernoulli model, the Gompertz model, and a discretization of the Logistic model. Overall, our results suggest that the logistic model is the most accurate continuous model for R. subcapitata population growth. We then implement the numerical discretization showing how the continuous logistic model for algae can be coupled to a previously validated discrete-time population model for D. magna